well well well, im not completely surprised to see recent developments in indonesian political constellation. democratic party has become the main contender to win the presidential next july since their success in acquiring more than 20% voters in the last election. that result is, however, not enough to nominate president – vice president candidate without forming coalition. the party has been consequently lobbying other parties, islamic ones, such as prosperous justice party (pks), national mandate party (pan), and national awakening party (pkb) in order to form a coalition. this effort might meet serious problems in the near future, as the party also tried to bring golkar back in to the coalition.
it was pks that opposed the idea of bringing golkar back in to the coalition. the party didnt want that the next cabinet to be formed upon power sharing, like what happened in the current cabinet.
the notion of going back into democratic’s side might also backfire on golkar. golkar once declared its intention to nominate its own president candidate, and therefore going back on their words would certainly do some damage to their image. on a side note, golkar might fall apart into some fractions, should the coalition with democratic party materialize. there were some people within golkar that didnt want it, and might consequently revolt against their leader.
on the other side of the constellation, pdip has tried to form a coalition with gerindra, hanura, and other parties (most of them do not meet parliamentary threshold of 2.5%). we are yet to know their president and vice president nominees. however, rumor has it that prabowo and puan maharani might well become the nominees.
i see prabowo and puan maharani, also EBY, as few individuals among the political elite that will shine in the future. puan maharani almost certainly will take over her mother’s position as pdip’s chairperson. by working together with prabowo to compete against SBY, puan will acquire tremendous political experience, which in turn will benefit her in the future.
there will be obviously some more developments in indonesian political world in the coming days and weeks. it will be interesting to see who the running mate of SBY will be and with whom they will compete in the presidential election next july.